Forecasting regular giving income

Why Prophesee?

As a fundraiser you’ll know that regular giving revenue can be a hugely significant proportion of your overall income so being able to accurately forecast this income is vital. Prophesee enables you to effectively plan the right levels of investment on the programs you run, and to decide how much budget should be allocated to Regular Giving recruitment, retention & cross-sell marketing activities.

The Prophesee Approach

The Adroit approach to Regular Giving Forecasting is to apply survival analysis techniques along with other statistical modelling techniques which incorporate your charities supporter base’s demographics and giving history in conjunction with future marketing activities. This provides accurate short, medium and long term income forecasts for both your existing donor base and future acquisition.

Key benefits

  1. Forecasts both Regular Giving supporter volume and financial values
  2. Forecasts for up to 10 years at monthly intervals
  3. Predicts Lifetime Value by channel, product, proposition and demographics
  4. Enables you to create 'What-If' scenarios to explore the implications of changes in performance
  5. Helps quantify the value of future investment over your baseline
  6. Includes all forms of Regular giving – cause, lottery, subscription and others
  7. Offers a cost-effective and easy-to-use way to create highly accurate projections
  8. Handles those tricky issues including 'No show' rates, Gift Aid and Upgrade values
  9. Help to explore the implications of the scenarios on your future recruitment mix and stewardship

Helping answer strategic questions

Helping answer strategic questions
  • Is there a relationship between recruitment price and long term value?
  • Will we achieve our medium term giving targets?
  • What's the optimum balance between audience, product and channel?
  • What do future volumes look like based on intended recruitment activity?
  • What's the impact of recruiting different age groups on long term value?
  • Should we increase our expenditure into Face to Face recruitment?

Helping answer tactical questions

Helping answer tactical questions
  • Are our lottery supporters worth the same as cause regular givers?
  • How will breakeven points be impacted by attrition rate?
  • Can I identify 'pain points' within the supporter journey that are causing attrition?
  • Can we identify recruitment channels that are underperforming?
  • What's the net value of regular givers recruited through different channels?
  • Are there certain propositions that perform better over the long-term?

Common Q&As

We’ve found there are real benefits to the user when Adroit undertakes the analysis. It results in a more accurate piece of analysis and typically takes far less time to produce the outputs. The modules, such as the What-if modules, allow you to define as many new scenarios as you want, which can be delivered very quickly.

Don’t worry you don’t need to supply any cost & expenditure data. We do ask for aggregated Cost Per Acquisition values for each media channel as this enables us to create breakeven and Return on Investment metrics.

Prophesee is designed to analyse the performance of supporters who have one or more types of regular payments that are considered a contract – such as a standing order or direct debit.

There’s no need to supply your communications history as Prophesee uses only the transactional data records within the analysis

This depends upon which analysis modules you’ve chosen. Typically Prophesee is configured and implemented within 6-8 weeks from receipt of the data.

We’re always interested in improving the tool and getting feedback – so we’d love to talk, however we can’t promise that new functions will always able added.

Prophesee is designed as an analysis tool and doesn’t benchmark your performance against other organisations. If benchmarking is of interest to you then we can help via our Indigo study, details of which are available on the Adroit website.

No, we never share your data or any information about your programme with any other organisations.

We aim to create the scenarios and their outputs within 48hrs from when you’ve submitted the information required. On occasions when this isn’t possible we’ll inform you inadvance.

A choice of options

Prophesee is available as a set of modules from which you can select which combination best suits your needs and budget. And because it modular you can build additional insights as and when you want rather than tied into a ‘one size fits all’ approach.

Data Engineering options

Before we can create a scenario forecast, the historical transactions of your regular givers need to be defined and structured in such a way that Prophesee can understand and process the data. Previously Adroit has always undertaken this task but such are the data capabilities of many charities we recognise that some users may wish to do the data engineering themselves.

Data Engineering options

D-I-Y option

The Do-It-Yourself option invites you to submit your data in a predefined structure – so if you have the data engineering capability this is a great option for you. We’ll support you in the process by sending you a data specification guide that outlines what’s required and we validate the data to ensure it meets the criteria.

Adroit Option

This option allows you to leave the engineering to us. We’ll need to discuss some technical details with you, but after that we’ll complete the engineering stage before starting to create your baseline forecast.

Scenario options

We’ve defined three modules that will help you answer the questions most relevant for your organisation. And if you’re looking for answers that don’t appear to be covered we’d be happy to discuss your specific needs.

Scenario options

Baseline Module

The ‘base-line’ forecast takes your existing regular givers and quantifies their expected financial values and volumes over the next ten years. This represents what you’re likely to achieve with no further investment into your regular giving programme.

This module is mandatory.


BAU Module

The Business-as-usual module builds on the baseline module in which we replicate the performance of your existing regular givers for new recruits based on the volumes you wish or expect to bring on board for up to 10 years. This enables you to see likely income values and volumes assuming performance variables remain the same.

Comparison Module

The comparison module enables you to forecast the relative performance over a ten year period of future recruits. It’s a head-to-head test of a single year cohort of new recruits using either behaviour patterns you’ve previously achieved or assumed values. This allows you to explore the potential income generated by a new audience or product based on the expected values you enter. So whether you wish to directly compare different audience profiles, recruitment products, recruitment channels and even payment types, this module provides the evidence you need to understand where to invest future expenditure.

What-if Options

Prophesee offers the opportunity to imagine multiple alternative scenarios and quantify the income each scenario will generate. So whether you wish to understand the difference a marginal improvement in attrition will make, or create a business plan for a entirely new product, we can help you achieve it quickly and accurately.

What-if Options

What-if Module

If you want to explore what you would achieve should the cost, retention and upgrade performance improve or worsen, then this module is for you. Here we work closely with you to define a future in which the volumes of new recruits, their source, their profile and their performance can all differ from the past.

Once one or more new What-if scenarios have been created we can compare them against each other and against the BAU module values to help you understand which scenario offers the best balance between potential financial gain and potential risk.

Optimism Module

This module provides the best and worst case for each scenario. We create a range of 5 outcomes from Very Optimistic to Very Pessimistic enabling you to quantify the income and volume implications should your performance over or under achieve by agreed amounts.

Sensitivity Module

If you could improve just one factor of your regular giving programme where would you focus? Which will give you the greatest long term benefit? Equipped with understanding the sensitivity of your programme we can help you identify where to focus your efforts and resources to acheive the maximum financial gain.

Reporting Options

We currently offer two alternative options for reporting back on the analysis findings.

Reporting Options

Standard Option

The standard report provides all the data files you will need to understand the future expected performance of your regular giving supporters.

Premium Option

The premium option provides both the data files we’ve created together with presentation slides that report back on the analysis and covers Regular Giving KPI metrics, together with our commentary on the relative performance of the scenarios. In-addition we include a 2 hour meeting with the analyst and a fundraising strategist which offer the opportunity to discuss the findings in greater depth.

The purpose of this is to place the analysis into context and help you explore the implications of the findings.

– Data supplied as CSV file
– Additional aggregated KPI’s including Return on investment and Breakeven month
– Additional performance comparisons
– Presentation slides of key findings
– Outcome meeting to discuss the findings

Bundled packages

We want charities of any size and level of data sophistication to benefit from Prophesee. So we’ve bundled together different combinations of modules to suit every budget.
  Core Additional
Analysis Modules included
Baseline module
BAU Module
Compare Module
Scenario Modules
What-if module (batch of 3)
Reporting Options included
Standard Option
Premium Option